In a previous report I posited that that the price of bitcoin was not predictable, but that euphoria and disillusionment may be identifiable. There has been a short boom and bust cycle since I wrote the report but nothing like the 2013 crash. I pointed to two things that occurred before the last 2 major crashes, (which I defined as 40% drop or more within a month):
- The price had doubled within 15 days.
- Search for bitcoin bubble dramatically increased in volume.
Neither has happened, yet. Some euphoria seems to be back though, so I decided to focus on longer term predictions with three key characteristics as influenced by Philip Tetlock's book, Superforecasters:
- Six months or more in advance
- Specific dates
- Specific prices or price ranges.
Below are all of the more specific predictions I could find. Please point me to more if they exist. I will ultimately compile them into an excel type scoreboard. As of now, Vinny Lingham is the only person I can find with a strong track record.
Vinny Lingham - $350-500 by year end (correct)
Alena Vranova - $50-10,000 = ( very wide but correct)
Vinny Lingham - $1000 by year end (ended about $970)
http://bitcoinprice.tech/bitcoin-price-prediction/ = $2000 by year end ($1000 off)
1 - Sept 2016 - Willy Woo - currently is $680 should be $2500. Target for in 2017
2 - Dec 2016 Vinny Lingham - Will hit $3000 in 2017
3 - Dec 2016 Cancord Genuity $1200 - by end of 2017
4 - Tim draper $1000-1400
5 - Daniel Masters, bitcoin will hit $4,400 by the end of 2017.
6 - http://bitcoinprice.tech/bitcoin-price-prediction/ = $5000 by 2017.
Tim Draper - $10,000 by 2018
Falkvinge and Willy Wook predict mainstream adoption?
http://bitcoinprice.tech/bitcoin-price-prediction/ - $10,000-$50,000
Cancord Genuity - $5300 by 2025. (link above)
Wences Cesares - $500k+ in 2024 (20% chance it could be 0)
Rick Falkvinge - $2-5 Million
This report does not constitute investment advice. Always seek professional advice. I am not an accredited investor.