But then let’s say the price then goes quickly to $500k by 2024. Seems implausible at first, but the chart below doesn’t look like anything more than a continued extension of the last two market cycles.
If you use NVT and exclude the very early price discovery before Bitcoin reached $1B in Network value, the first peak to peak price in red above was 2 ⅓ years. The second took 4 years. Why shouldn’t the third be 6 + years?
If you are feel slightly annoyed or irritated, is it because my chart doesn’t tie in with your future plan for the Bitcoin price? Are you irritated that Bitcoin could store your USD reasonably well for a few years and could reach $500k+ in just 6 years?! Do you find yourself hoping for capitulation so as we can 'get going' again soon?
Here are some more annoying ideas. Let's say Bitcoin remains relatively stable for a few years vs the USD and its role as a ‘stablecoin’ becomes the new, incorrect media narrative. Krugman starts to say it’s becoming a better currency because of this. Traditional markets climb higher and an ETF fails to drive retail and institutional demand. Ethereum and/or others take off again as more speculative, seemingly 'cheaper' assets as Bitcoins volatility drops. Would you hold through this period? Many Bitcoin developers would be happy with this situation as they build out the infrastructure needed for a global, reliable, digital gold.
There is a chance that Bitcoin could go to 0 as Wences Casares and others have pointed out . What's more likely is that Bitcoin won’t follow the path of popular opinion, which is a recovery between 2018-2019. I honestly don’t know how it will play out and would welcome an earlier recovery. But drawing out reasonable, if somewhat disappointing short term outcomes can help manage your expectations.
To use a Buffett cliche: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." Maybe Bitcoin is too. If Altcoins stole your Bitcoin in 2017, maybe boredom will take them next.