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Bitcoin Predictions from Technologists with a strong track record, outside of Bitcoin.

12/3/2016

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 After building my first ZCash mining Node I decided to do some sentiment research on Bitcoin. Particularly to try and find dissenting voices among technologists with a strong track record. I found a number of skeptics among economists but not many technologists. If anyone knows of any please let me know. Also any changes in stance would be interesting. By strong track record here I mean they have made large public, successful bets on technology. Usually this is in the form of their own companies or investments but I would also take a longbets, or any other bet.


Positive Outcome

Marc Andreesen - Created first web browser, Netscape. Early investor in Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest and Github.

“There have been 3 paradigm big changes in technology.
Personal computers in 1975, the Internet in 1993, and – I believe – Bitcoin in 2014.”
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/21/why-bitcoin-matters/

Peter Thiel - Founded Paypal.  Owned 10% of facebook at IPO which he bought for $500,000 in 2005. Early investor in LinkedIn Yelp and Stripe.

http://www.coindesk.com/peter-thiel-claims-bitcoin-potential-change-world/
“I do think bitcoin is the first...encrypted money…. that has the potential to ...change the world

Paul Graham - Founded Y Combinator, first investor in Airbnb and Dropbox.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5402513
“ I am very intrigued by Bitcoin.  It has all the signs of a Paradigm shift, hackers love it, yet it's derided as a toy.  Just like microcomputers.”

John Collison Stripe.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JngiPEKOPiU
“Genuinely a technological breakthrough, the fully decentralised nature of it is a phenomenal accomplishment.” Patrick Collison “ I really like bitcoin” http://bit.ly/1jqFUKp

Naval Ravikant - Early investor in Twitter. Founded Angellist.
http://startupboy.com/2013/11/07/bitcoin-the-internet-of-money/
“Bitcoin will eventually be recognized as a platform for building new financial services…..Silicon Valley knows a platform when it sees it, and is aflame with Bitcoin. Teams of brilliant young programmers, entranced by the opportunity, are working on [ideas]”

Chris Dixon - Early investor in Skype and Kickstarter

http://cdixon.org/2013/12/31/why-im-interested-in-bitcoin/
“Bitcoin is a serious proposal for dramatically improving the payments industry. There are plenty of open questions but I think it’s an experiment worth running.”

Richard Branson "Virgin Galactic is a company looking into the future, so is Bitcoin,"

Milton Friedman on Ecash in 1999 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MnQJFEVY7s
Reid Hoffman.

“Bitcoin has the potential to be a massively disruptive technology,” “It is the leading digital currency and it’s growing fast.”
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/244859

Wences Casares - Sold first fintech startup for $750m
“I think it will take time, just like the internet took time. But it may have more impact than the internet.” http://uk.businessinsider.com/how-bitcoin-may-have-more-impact-than-the-internet-2015-2?r=US&IR=T


Mixed/Neutral

Ketih Rabois - Dec 2013

I don’t  have a strong perspective , I don’t know how bitcoin will play out. The underlying primitives are fascinating. …. There is no chance that bitcoin will suceed in the US. If someone in DC wants to make them illegal, it will be easy. Do I think bitcoin can suceed outside the US? Absolutely. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ia1bqXuOg04

Bill Gates

"I think it's a technical tour de force but that it is an area where governments are going to maintain a dominant role."

Paul Buchheit “Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money"


Negative

In the interest of balance I will include some well known detractors below. Except for Buffett none are succesful tech entrpreneurs or have made big, successful, public bets on future technology. 

Warren Buffett

"Bitcoin is a mirage" - Slightly dissapointly compares it to cheques and calls it anonymous. The interviewers also were unable to challenge his view.  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewMYbX47-IE

Paul Krugman - Nobel Laureate

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/28/bitcoin-is-evil/

when I try to get them to explain to me why BitCoin is a reliable store of value, they always seem to come back with explanations about how it’s a terrific medium of exchange

Robert Shiller - Nobel Laureate

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/01/24/bitcoin-is-an-amazing-example-of-a-bubble-robert-shiller/

Bitcoin is a bubble

Glenn Fleishmann - Writer/ Entrepreneur
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Fleishman

https://medium.com/the-magazine/23e551c67a6
Andreessen attempts to draw a parallel between the birth of the personal-computing era and the explosion of the publicly accessible Internet and Bitcoin. These are fundamentally flawed analogies

Matthew O’Brien of the Atlantic calls it, “the ultimate dotcom stock,”  a bubble that will burst

Mathhew Ingrham - GigaOM writer
“Bitcoin can’t track the thief or reverse transactions”http://gigaom.com/author/mathewingram/inevitably burst?

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