In a previous report, I posited that that the price of bitcoin was not predictable, but that euphoria and disillusionment may be identifiable. There has been a short boom and bust cycle since I wrote the report but nothing like the 2013 crash. I pointed to two things that occurred before the last 2 major crashes, (which I defined as 40% drop or more within a month):
- The price had doubled within 15 days.
- Search for 'bitcoin bubble' dramatically increased in volume.
Neither has happened yet, and both may not preceed the next big crash, but some euphoria seems to be back. Is there someone with a good track record of predictions who can help if we are returning to animal instincts? I decided to focus on longer term predictions with three key characteristics as influenced by Philip Tetlock's book, Superforecasters:
- Six months or more in advance
- Specific dates
- Specific prices or price ranges.
Below are all of the more specific predictions I could find. Please point me to more if they exist. I will ultimately compile them into an excel type scoreboard. As of now, Vinny Lingham is the only person I can find with a strong track record.
2014
March 2014 - Vinny Lingham - $350-500 by year end (correct)
Feb 2014 - Alena Vranova - $50-10,000 = ( very wide but correct)
2016
May 2016 - Vinny Lingham - $1000 by year end (ended about $970)
bitcoinprice.tech= $2000 by year end ($1000 off)
2017
1 - Sept 2016 - Willy Woo - currently is $680 should be $2500. Target for in 2017
2 - Dec 2016 Vinny Lingham - Will hit $3000 in 2017
3 - Dec 2016 Cancord Genuity $1200 - by end of 2017
4 - Tim draper $1000-1400
5 - Daniel Masters, bitcoin will hit $4,400 by the end of 2017.
6 - http://bitcoinprice.tech/bitcoin-price-prediction/ = $5000 by 2017.
7. Petar Zivkovski - $2000
Less specific times within the year.
Joe Lee - Over $1500
Ryan Rabiglia - Over $1400
Alex Tapscott - $2000
2018
Tim Draper - $10,000 by 2018
2020
http://bitcoinprice.tech/bitcoin-price-prediction/ - $10,000-$50,000
2025
Cancord Genuity - $5300 by 2025. (link above)
Wences Cesares - $500k+ in 2024 (20% chance it could be 0)
2029
Rick Falkvinge - $2-5 Million
This report does not constitute investment advice. Always seek professional advice. I am not an accredited investor.
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