Bitcoin S Curves - Hitting the Knee

If you use /r/bitcoin subscribers as a proxy for Bitcoin User adoption, we have had 2 ‘S’ Curves since Jan 2013 and possibly a 3rd coming. http://redditmetrics.com/r/Bitcoin

Price has been much spikier than user growth.The red dots are monthly total subscribers. Watch for the big gaps.

Widely adopted technologies often follow a long S Curve as documented by Carlotta Perez. Within this curve there are shorter S patterns.

If Bitcoin becomes widely adopted and the Cambridge study is correct, we’re at 1993-4 in ‘Internet user adoption years.’ ​

User adoption is smooth but collective trading is volatile. Comparing Nasdaq (red) price to Internet user growth (blue) reflects the adoption vs price difference.

5. @Renegadeinvestor believes we are near the knee of the longer term S curve - 

Kyle Bass expects a similar ‘step function’ at some stage, which he references in this interview.

​There is no guarantee Bitcoin will become widely adopted. The best adaptation of this idea to Bitcoin is Mike Casey’s Theory.  Worth reading in full. I’m just adding small details.  

https://twitter.com/btcbehaviour