Value on Twitter comes through novel insights. @Naval is the rare person who sticks to this formula. Most others regurgitate other insights or can't resist random tweets. Finding novelty is like Discover Weekly on Spotify. You're digging for gems.
@WillyWoo is consistently novel. I would happily pay for him & @Naval's tweets. Nuzzel doesn’t work for novelty. Many retweets usually means the idea is already well appreciated. I had only 1 novel idea in the last 3 months. Cyclical euphoria in Crypto is an inevitable, useful thing, unlike many are claiming now. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/66nqej/when_bitcoin_euphoria_goes_mainstream_lessons/ . Here is another attempt:
Ferocious side taking in Crypto happens because it’s comforting. Tech prediction is very hard. It requires holding multiple potential outcomes in your head at the same time. Maximalism is mentally easier. @naval, @wencescesares @pg aren’t dogmatic because probabilistically it's a bad strategy. Wences is very bullish on Bitcoin but still thinks there is a 20% chance it goes to zero. Superforecasters (Philip Tetlock) do the same thing.
TLDR; Listening to tech maximalists is probably a bad idea. I think BTC will still outperform all others, but I assign a weighting to this prediction that changes over time.
@WillyWoo is consistently novel. I would happily pay for him & @Naval's tweets. Nuzzel doesn’t work for novelty. Many retweets usually means the idea is already well appreciated. I had only 1 novel idea in the last 3 months. Cyclical euphoria in Crypto is an inevitable, useful thing, unlike many are claiming now. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/66nqej/when_bitcoin_euphoria_goes_mainstream_lessons/ . Here is another attempt:
Ferocious side taking in Crypto happens because it’s comforting. Tech prediction is very hard. It requires holding multiple potential outcomes in your head at the same time. Maximalism is mentally easier. @naval, @wencescesares @pg aren’t dogmatic because probabilistically it's a bad strategy. Wences is very bullish on Bitcoin but still thinks there is a 20% chance it goes to zero. Superforecasters (Philip Tetlock) do the same thing.
TLDR; Listening to tech maximalists is probably a bad idea. I think BTC will still outperform all others, but I assign a weighting to this prediction that changes over time.
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