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In a previous report I posited that that the price of bitcoin was not predictable, but that euphoria and disillusionment may be identifiable. There has been a short boom and bust cycle since I wrote the report but nothing like the 2013 crash. I pointed to two things that occurred before the last 2 major crashes, (which I defined as 40% drop or more within a month):

  1. The price had doubled within 15 days.
  2. Search for bitcoin bubble dramatically increased in volume.

Neither has happened, yet. Some euphoria seems to be back though, so I decided to focus on longer term predictions with three key characteristics as influenced by Philip Tetlock's book, Superforecasters:

  1. Six months or more in advance 
  2. Specific dates
  3. Specific prices or price ranges.

Below are all of the more specific predictions I could find. Please point me to more if they exist. I will ultimately compile them into an excel type scoreboard. As of now, Vinny Lingham is the only person I can find with a strong track record.

2014

Vinny Lingham - $350-500 by year end (correct)

Alena Vranova - $50-10,000 = ( very wide but correct)

2016

Vinny Lingham - $1000 by year end (ended about $970)

http://bitcoinprice.tech/bitcoin-price-prediction/ = $2000 by year end ($1000 off)


2017

1 - Sept 2016 - Willy Woo - currently is $680 should be $2500. Target for in 2017

​2 - Dec 2016 Vinny Lingham - Will hit $3000 in 2017

3 - Dec 2016 Cancord Genuity $1200 - by end of 2017 

4 - Tim draper $1000-1400

5 - Daniel Masters, bitcoin will hit $4,400 by the end of 2017.

6 - http://bitcoinprice.tech/bitcoin-price-prediction/ = $5000 by 2017.

2018

Tim Draper - $10,000 by 2018

2019

Falkvinge and Willy Wook predict mainstream adoption?


2020

http://bitcoinprice.tech/bitcoin-price-prediction/ - $10,000-$50,000

2025

Cancord Genuity - $5300 by 2025. (link above)

Wences Cesares - $500k+ in 2024 (20% chance it could be 0)

2029

Rick Falkvinge - $2-5 Million

This report does not constitute investment advice. Always seek professional advice. I am not an accredited investor.


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